Simon Hunt, copper expert and macro analyst, predicts a global depression by 2025 due to the highly leveraged parts of the global economy going bust as the long end of the interest rate curve, which central banks cannot control, results in sharp rising yields. Hunt believes that 2025 will see a large correction in global equity, bond, and commodity markets, with inflation rising and equity and commodity markets surging to new highs. However, the rising yields will have a negative impact, leading to the global depression. Hunt also discusses the geopolitical factor of the relationship between Russia, China, and Germany, which could lead to the creation of a new currency backed by gold, that may be piloted in some countries in the near future. Hunt mentions that the war syndrome is another factor that adds to the fragility of the global economic and financial structure. If the war leads to the breaking of alliances and creates a backlash, that could accelerate the fall towards a global depression.
The war is having a major impact on geopolitical decision-making, specifically in relation to Germany’s ties with Russia and China. There is a risk that the EU could break up as a result. As for the impact on monetary policy, there will likely be a shift from quantitative tightening to easing, interest rates will fall, and inflation will rise. The bond market will lose faith in central planners and demand higher yields, ultimately leading to US Treasuries yielding over 10 percent by 2025-2026. There will also be significant impacts on commodities, with oil prices expected to hit $150 by the end of the year and $150-200 next year.
In this interview, Simon White discusses his predictions for the global economy and markets. He foresees a global recession in the near future, followed by a central bank re-inflation rescue that will lead to new highs in stocks and commodities by mid-2023. However, he believes that this recovery will be short-lived and will ultimately lead to a global depression by 2025-2026, with interest rates and yields being a major factor in the collapse. White suggests that the brixplus currency, which is gold-based, could be introduced during the crisis, providing an alternative to fiat currency. He predicts that after the depression, the global economy will revert to a more equity-based system with a growth rate of around 4%.